BlockBeats News, July 23rd, the Middle East situation has escalated from a "single chokepoint risk" to a "dual chokepoint risk." The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea—Suez Canal are facing simultaneous military threats, with Iran and the Houthi armed forces pressuring shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, respectively. The United States is also simultaneously deploying special forces, fighter jets, and long-range bombers to the Middle East theater. What the market truly needs to be vigilant about is not just the impact on oil prices, but the structural increase in global energy transportation costs and insurance costs. As Brent crude oil approaches $95 per barrel again, this is no longer a short-term supply-demand issue but a reevaluation of the risk premium for global logistics and energy security in asset pricing.

Of particular note is that this energy shock is occurring in misalignment with global central bank policies. While the European Central Bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this week, the significant rebound in energy prices over a month is prompting speculation in the market about a rate hike in September. Japan, on the other hand, due to the weakening yen and import-driven inflationary pressure, is open to accelerating rate hikes. In contrast, despite the temporary relief from the June CPI dip easing immediate pressure on the Fed for a July rate hike, with the forward guidance being dropped at the Fed's latest meeting, the predictability of future policy paths has significantly decreased. The derivatives market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike before the end of September. This means that the market is no longer trading on "will there be a rate hike this month?" but on "whether the energy shock will keep inflation elevated."

The signals coming from the long-dated bond market are equally hard to ignore. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond has been holding above 5% consistently, hitting a rare record in nearly 20 years. This reflects a triple pressure of fiscal deficits, AI infrastructure financing, and inflation risks. With weakening foreign demand and domestic funds preferring short-dated bonds, the US government's future financing costs are facing higher barriers. The critical range the market is now focusing on is no longer just 5% but whether around 5.25% will pose a substantial pressure on stock market valuations and financial stability.

AI capital expenditure has become another underestimated variable. Google has raised its 2026 capital expenditure to $195 billion to $205 billion, OpenAI has increased its cloud computing expenditure estimate for 2030 to $700 billion, and AMD has reached a multi-billion-dollar chip and investment agreement with Anthropic. This means that tech giants will continue to issue a large amount of long-term bonds in the coming years, competing with the US Treasury for long-term funding. The market is entering a phase of jointly absorbing global savings through "government deficits + AI infrastructure," making it harder for long-term interest rates to quickly fall.

The policy mix of the Trump administration is also adding to inflation uncertainty. On one hand, preparing to launch a new round of 301 tariffs on dozens of economies, and on the other hand, granting a two-year zero tariff buffer period for generic drugs, showing that the White House is still seeking a balance between "external pressure" and "internal price control." The issue is, if oil prices remain high and gasoline prices climb back above $4 per gallon, combined with tariff costs, the inflation pressure may be more persistent than currently expected by the market and could directly impact the political risk before the November midterm elections.

From an asset pricing perspective, the most critical second-layer signal at the moment is: the market is currently facing both "energy supply risk" and "funding supply constraints" simultaneously. The former is driving up inflation and transportation costs, while the latter is raising global funding costs through long-term government bond yields and AI financing demand. This combination implies that the difficulty of risk asset valuation expansion has further increased, and funds will be more inclined to flow towards short-duration assets and targets with cash flow defensive capabilities. What we really need to pay attention to is not just whether the oil price can break through $100, but whether the 30-year US Treasury bond yield will form a new normal range above 5%; once this level is accepted by the market, the discount rate system of global assets will face repricing.