BlockBeats News, August 26th. With the 2026 US midterm elections entering the final 10-week countdown, the Democratic Party is currently leading by approximately 6 percentage points in generic congressional ballot polling, and the market is beginning to assess the potential impact of its reclamation of congressional control on the financial markets.

Analysis suggests that if the Democratic Party were to control Congress, the US could enter a state of "divided government," where significant legislation may face gridlock or prolonged political tug-of-war. Raymond James analyst Ed Mills stated that the market volatility of the past two years has been more influenced by executive actions rather than legislation. If Trump faces congressional constraints, the White House may advance policies through more frequent and aggressive executive orders, particularly regarding tariff measures, thereby increasing market uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the US debt ceiling issue has become another major risk on Wall Street. The market anticipates that the US government could hit the debt ceiling of around $41.1 trillion by mid-2027. Credit Suisse warned that if the Democratic Party controls Congress, they may use the debt ceiling to force policy concessions from the Republicans. A debt ceiling standoff could raise US Treasury yields and worsen market volatility. As the "default trigger date" approaches, short-term Treasury bonds may face selling pressure.

Furthermore, if the election result is delayed significantly due to counting or legal challenges, the market could see a repeat of "election chaos," leading to an increase in risk aversion and heightened volatility. Analysts point out that what Wall Street needs most at the moment is a clear and predictable election outcome.