BlockBeats News, August 28, QCP Capital released its latest market analysis. BTC remained near $80,000 before the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. The market's focus is not only on Fed Chair Powell's policy stance but also on how the Fed will balance persistent inflation pressure with the financial environment, especially the new pressure on the U.S. bond yield curve.

QCP pointed out that the U.S. Treasury previously announced an increase in the liquidity support repurchase size for 10-year to 30-year bonds starting from September 9, with the upper limit per operation raised from $20 billion to at least $40 billion. After the news was released, long-term U.S. bond yields briefly declined, the dollar weakened, and gold and BTC rose simultaneously. However, the Treasury emphasized that the plan aims to improve long-term nominal bond market liquidity rather than intervene in yield levels. Inflation remains a key constraint for the Fed. Data shows that overall PCE in the U.S. rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, with a 3.7% year-on-year growth; core PCE rose by 0.2% month-on-month and remained at 3.3% year-on-year. QCP stated that inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, creating uncertainty for the September policy decision.

Current risk assets continue to be supported by the AI investment cycle. NVIDIA's latest financial report showed quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, a 106% year-on-year increase, with data center business revenue reaching $89 billion, up 117% year-on-year. The company expects revenue of approximately $108 billion in the next quarter, higher than market expectations. NVIDIA's stock price subsequently rose by about 8.7%, driving overall strength in the tech sector.

In the crypto market, BTC has risen from around $63,500 last week to about $80,000, briefly breaking through $81,000. The U.S. spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, with a total net inflow of about $2.8 billion, providing spot demand support for this round of the rally. It is worth noting that this rally has not been accompanied by a rapid increase in leverage. The BTC futures open interest has decreased from about 646,000 BTC in mid-August to around 588,000 BTC, and the funding rate has remained at a low level. QCP believes that this indicates that this rally is more driven by short covering and spot buying rather than a large amount of leveraged long positions chasing the rise. Currently, BTC is approaching the $81,000 to $86,000 range, with around $83,300 being a key level to watch. QCP stated that the key is not only whether BTC can break through this range but also whether the subsequent rally will continue to be driven by spot demand or shift to being dominated by leveraged funds.

QCP stated that Powell will deliver the opening speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, and the market will closely watch how he articulates the inflation target, financial environment, and the impact of long-term rate changes on the monetary policy framework.