BlockBeats News, August 19th, VanEck stated that Bitcoin's nearly 11-month correction phase may be coming to an end, and the market may be entering a new accumulation stage.

The VanEck research team, including Director of Digital Asset Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, found through their "Bitcoin Capitulation Check" model that out of the current 12 market indicators, 8 have shown extreme bearish signals, with all 12 indicators having entered the panic selling zone in the past three months.

The researchers stated that these data indicate that the Bitcoin market appears to have gone through a price "capitulation" phase and is approaching or has already entered an accumulation period. At the same time, signs of market inflows are improving. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday, marking the highest single-day inflow since May 5th.

During the past three Bitcoin bear market cycles, the average duration from market top to maximum drawdown has been around 12.7 months. The current correction phase has now entered its 11th month, and following the historical cycle pattern, the market may gradually bottom out and enter the accumulation phase between September and November.

However, VanEck cautioned that market capitulation signals cannot be used as a definitive indicator for short-term buying. Historical data shows that when 8 to 12 indicators simultaneously show extreme signals, the average returns for Bitcoin in the following 90 and 180 days are lower than the long-term benchmark level. It is expected that the low point of this cycle's correction may be milder than in previous bear markets, mainly due to the development of spot Bitcoin ETFs, broader institutional investor participation, and the absence of chain reactions from events such as FTX, Celsius, and Terra Luna collapses.

Furthermore, in the past 30 days, long-term holders of Bitcoin for over a year have reduced by approximately 356,000 BTC, bringing their holdings to around 11.84 million BTC, pushing the percentage of long-term holders below 60% for the first time in months. VanEck believes that this reflects some long-term investors unlocking their chips, but the overall market structure has not yet experienced the extreme deleveraging seen in past cycles.